Ottawa’s three suburban submarkets continued to account for more than 70% of residential sales in August, but all three recorded year-over-year declines. Sales fell 14.3% in Ottawa Suburb West, 20.0% in Ottawa Suburb East and 25.1% in Ottawa Suburb South. 

 

Ottawa Suburb West had the firmest absorption among the three suburban markets, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 51.9% and 3.6 months of inventory. Ottawa Suburb East and Ottawa Suburb South each recorded 4.1 months of inventory, with sales-to-new-listings ratios below the citywide level. 

 

Softer conditions were more pronounced in Ottawa Center and Ottawa Rural East. Ottawa Center recorded 81 sales, a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 38.2% and 7.0 months of inventory. Ottawa Rural East recorded 84 sales, a ratio of 40.6% and 6.5 months of inventory. 

 

Ottawa Rural West was the only submarket to record a year-over-year sales increase, rising 22.6%, and had the highest sales-to-new-listings ratio at 62.3%. However, its 76 transactions represented a relatively small share of citywide activity, and the percentage increase should therefore be interpreted cautiously. 

 

Overall, the regional results indicate that August’s slowdown was not confined to one part of Ottawa. Absorption remained comparatively firmer in the western suburban and rural markets, while central Ottawa and Rural East experienced more supply-sensitive conditions. 

 

To learn more about the seven Ottawa submarkets, see the Ottawa non-HPI report located here, or visit this page for more information. 

 

August’s softer housing results came against an uncertain, though improving national economic backdrop. Statistics Canada reported that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, while first-quarter growth was revised upward to 0.3%. The Bank of Canada’s July outlook similarly described the economy as showing signs of improvement, while emphasizing that uncertainty remained elevated.  

 

CMHC’s 2026 outlook expects sales in the Ottawa metropolitan area to stabilize, while slower demand growth and increasing supply limit price increases. CMHC also expects the local rental market to continue softening as elevated construction moves toward completion. 

 

At the national level, RBC Economics expects home resales and benchmark prices to decline overall in 2026 before beginning a modest recovery in 2027. Its latest outlook forecasts national transactions rising 6.7% next year, but cautions that the recovery is likely to remain irregular as affordability pressures, slower population growth and economic uncertainty continue to affect demand. 

 

For Ottawa, the central question heading into the fall market is whether August represents a temporary interruption or the beginning of a more sustained slowdown. One month does not establish a trend, but the unusually sharp sales decline, lower sales-to-new-listings ratio, higher months of inventory and wider year-to-date shortfall are important signals to monitor. Whether properties that left the market without selling return during the fall, perhaps with new pricing strategies, will also help indicate whether some sellers were temporarily pausing their plans or withdrawing for a longer period.